Did Israel miscalculate Iranian military capabilities?

Iranian attacks on Israeli military and civilian targets near the Dimona nuclear facility have prompted Israeli officials and analysts to reassess their assessment of Iran's military reach and precision capabilities. The strikes on Arad and the proximity of impacts to Israel's nuclear complex suggest Iran's ballistic missile arsenal may pose a greater threat than previously evaluated by Israeli defense planners. The incident has triggered debate over whether Israel's Iron Dome and Arrow air defense systems adequately account for the volume and sophistication of Iranian ordnance. Israeli security assessments now face pressure to recalibrate threat modeling for potential future Iranian strikes. The findings could reshape regional military strategy and influence Israeli calculations about deterrence and defensive posture.