What the historic snow drought means for water, wildfires and the future of the West

Winter 2026 brought a historic snow drought to the Western U.S., with only five of approximately 70 river basins at or above the 1991-2020 median snow water equivalent as of late March, while eleven basins fell below 25 percent of historical norms. The shortage stems from a triple threat: abnormally warm temperatures in two of the three critical snow-accumulation months (December and February) and far-below-average precipitation in January, causing precipitation that would normally fall as snow to fall as rain instead. Water managers in Wyoming and Washington have already begun signaling that some water rights holders will receive less than their full water allotment in 2026, with other Western states expected to follow. The Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri river headwaters are among the critically important basins now far below historical averages, threatening summer water supplies for farms, cities, and communities across the region. Fire officials are also bracing for a dangerous summer fire season given the depleted snowpack and accumulated dry conditions.