Early COVID-19 pandemic death toll much higher than official count: Study

The Hill
by Ryan Mancini
March 19, 2026
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4 min read

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Study finds over 155,000 early COVID deaths went uncounted between March 2020 and December 2021.

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A study published in Science Advances found that more than 155,000 additional COVID-19 deaths occurred outside hospitals between March 2020 and December 2021 and went uncounted in official tallies, meaning roughly 15.6 percent of pandemic deaths were missed. The research suggests that the true early death toll from the pandemic was significantly higher than recorded figures, likely because deaths in homes, nursing facilities, and other non-hospital settings often went unconfirmed or unreported. This gap in data has major implications for understanding the pandemic's true public health impact and for evaluating government response effectiveness during the critical early phases. The findings underscore how mortality surveillance systems struggled to capture deaths outside traditional hospital settings when testing was limited and death certificates sometimes lacked COVID diagnosis confirmation. Health officials and policymakers now have more precise accounting of the pandemic's actual toll during its deadliest period.

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