Poll shows Paxton beating Cornyn in Texas if Trump doesn’t endorse

The Hill
by Sarah Davis
March 20, 2026
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3 min read

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A poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Sen. John Cornyn in a Republican primary if Trump doesn't endorse Cornyn.

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A new Change Research poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Sen. John Cornyn 42 percent to an unspecified share among likely Texas Republican primary voters in their runoff contest. The survey suggests that Trump's silence on the race—a departure from his typical kingmaker role in Republican primaries—could hurt Cornyn, whose political survival now depends partly on whether the president intervenes. Cornyn, a three-term incumbent and former Senate Republican whip, faces an unexpectedly competitive challenge from Paxton, who has cultivated strong support among Trump-aligned Republicans in the state. Trump's endorsement historically carries decisive weight in GOP primaries, and his continued reluctance to back either candidate leaves Cornyn vulnerable to a primary upset. The runoff winner will face the Democratic nominee in what is expected to be a heavily Republican general election seat.

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